Return migration and in-situ urbanization of 79 migrant sending counties in China: Characteristic and driving factors

Abstract

As the country with the largest number of migrants, China has shown a trend of return migration in recent years. However, the characteristics and mechanism of emerging in-situ urbanization of migrants have not been fully revealed. We construct an analytical framework considering China's situation based on the push-pull theory in the urban-rural dichotomy. Using cell phone data from 79 migrant-sending counties, we calculate the in-situ urbanization rate and apply a simple regression model to analyze its driving factors. The findings show that rural income and fiscal investments are the main pull factors, while economic slowdown in cities acts as push factors.In-situ urbanization is the dual effect of improving living standards and reducing urban employment opportunities. To support China's efforts in New-type Urbanization, improving living standards and expanding off-farm employment opportunities of migrant-sending counties are suggested.