Retrospects and Prospects of Political Stability in Nigeria

Abstract

The elusive and aggravating problem of instituting a viable political order based on effective, legitimate and authoritative government in Nigeria has no doubt become in recent times one of the most pressing and fundamental preoccupations of its decisionmakers and the public alike, as the ongoing political debate attests. This paper represents essentially an attempt to analyze and comprehend the social dynamics that generate the persistent syndrome of political instability in Nigeria, and on that basis to hazard a conjecturel about the future of the Nigerian state from past and current trends, as this might be shaped by systematic challenges. Stated differently, the primary objective of the present analysis (in terms of its explanatory and projective dimensions) is in response to the intriguing question of why a state once considered a showpiece of decolonizing Africa could then manage to plummet from such an apogee of grace (Kirk-Greene, 1976: 7) and come perilously close first to collapse, then to constitutional chaos and a bloody civil war, and finally to a rapid interchange between civilian and military regimes. The first section below is intended as a preliminary methodological note to the second and final sections: examination of extant theoretical perspectives on instability and political order in Nigeria, and a probabilistic projection of the future from past trends, respectively.