Retrospective Study on Seismic Ionospheric Anomalies Based on Five-Year Observations from CSES

Abstract

The China Seismo-Electromagnetic Satellite (CSES-01) is the first satellite of the space-based observational platform for the earthquake (EQ) monitoring system in China. It aims to monitor the ionospheric disturbances related to EQ activities by acquiring global electromagnetic fields, ionospheric plasma, energy particles, etc., opening a new path for innovative explorations of EQ prediction. This study analyzed 47 shallow strong EQ cases (Ms ≥ 7 and depth ≤ 100 km) recorded by CSES-01 from its launch in February 2018 to February 2023. The results show that: (1) For the majority (90%) of shallow strong EQs, at least one payload onboard CSES-01 recorded discernible abnormal signals before the mainshocks, and for over 65% of EQs, two or three payloads simultaneously recorded ionospheric disturbances; (2) the majority of anomalies recorded by different payloads onboard CSES-01 predominantly manifest within one week before or on the mainshock day, or occasionally about 11–15 days or 20–25 days before the mainshock; (3) typically, the abnormal signal detected by CSES-01 does not directly appear overhead the epicenter, but rather hundreds of kilometers away from the epicenter, and more preferably toward the equatorward direction; (4) the anomaly recognition rate of each payload differs, with the highest rate reaching more than 70% for the Electric Field Detector (EFD), Search-Coil Magnetometer (SCM), and Langmuir Probe (LAP); (5) for the different parameters analyzed in this study, the plasma density from LAP, and electromagnetic field in the ULF band recorded by EFD and SCM, and energetic electrons from the High-Energy Particle Package (HEPP) show a relatively high occurrence of abnormal phenomena during the EQ time. Although CSES-01 has recorded prominent ionospheric anomalies for a significant portion of EQ cases, it is still challenging to accurately extract and confirm the real seismic precursor signals by relying solely on a single satellite. The combination of seismology, electromagnetism, geodesy, geochemistry, and other multidisciplinary means is needed in the future’s exploration to get infinitely closer to addressing the global challenge of EQ prediction.