Retrospective duration estimation of public events

Abstract

In three experiments, we investigated subjects' retrospective estimation of the duration of publicly reported events such as, for example, the Falkland's war. In Experiment 1, duration estimates were found to be positively correlated with event knowledge, in keeping with Ornstein's (1969) model of duration estimation. Event duration was, however, generally underestimated, suggesting that the relationship between event knowledge and estimated duration might reflect an increase in estimation accuracy. Other results of Experiment 1 were consistent with this interpretation and suggested that the duration estimates might be largely reconstructed. In Experiment 2, duration estimates of specific events and general categories of events were found to be highly correlated, and the subjects in Experiment 3 indicated that they used knowledge of the general characteristic of different types of events to estimate event duration. Overall, reallife duration estimates appear to be based on a combination of specific event information and knowledge derived about that category of event.