Retrospective and Prospective Analysis on the Trends of China’s Steel Production

Abstract

AbstractEconomic development has contributed to the rapid expansion of China's steel industry during the past two decades, which has resulted in numerous problems including increased energy consumption and excessive environmental pollution. This study examines changes in crude steel production, steel scrap consumption, energy consumption, CO2emissions and steel stocks per capita from 2000 to 2014. Scenario analysis based on QGT equation is provided to accurately assess China's steel demand. Under three different scenarios, the peak of steel production and the variation trend of energy consumption, CO2emissions, steel stocks per capita and steel scrap are analyzed from 2010 to 2030. Based on Chinese situation, the most reasonable variation trend of China's steel production is proposed, which will increase from 626.7 Mt in 2010 to approximately 914 Mt in 2020, then gradually decrease to about 870 Mt in 2030. Steel stocks per capita will increase from 3.8 t/cap in 2010 to 8.09 t/cap in 2020 (the inferior limit of completing industrialization), then reach 11.46 t/cap in 2030 and stabilize. The peaks of energy consumption and CO2emissions in steel industry are expected to reach 505.37 Mtce and 1444.1 Mt in 2020, respectively. The scrap ratio is expected to reach 0.36 by 2030, when steel scrap resources will be relatively sufficient. This paper can provide corresponding theoretical basis for the government to make decision-making of macro-control.