Abstract
The observed global warming has significant impacts on permafrost. Permafrost changes modify landscapes and cause damage to infrastructure. The main purpose of this study was to estimate permafrost temperatures and active-layer thicknesses during the Holocene intervals with significantly warmer-than-present climates—the Atlantic (5500 years BP), Subboreal (3500 years BP) and Subatlantic (1000 years BP) optimums. Estimates were obtained using the ready-to-use models derived by G.M. Feldman, as well as mathematical modeling taking account of the paleogeography of the Holocene warm intervals. The data obtained were analyzed to reveal the regional patterns of warming impacts on different permafrost landscapes. The study results will be useful in predicting future permafrost changes in response to climate warming.
Highlights
The topic of this study is of relevance to assess the stability and optimal development of the natural environment under current climate warming
Fragmentary and sporadic data on the temperature of permafrost and active layer thickness (ALT) available in the literature are not sufficient to understand the processes occurring during the warming periods in the Holocene, the conditions for the development of permafrost landscapes at this time are important in assessing modern changes in permafrost landscapes and their future state
We examined lowland permafrost landscapes—tundra, northern and middle taiga—where the most characteristic Yedoma landscapes are unstable to climate warming and anthropogenic disturbances [3,21]
Summary
The topic of this study is of relevance to assess the stability and optimal development of the natural environment under current climate warming. The main task of these studies is to assess the change in the permafrost temperature and active layer thickness (ALT) in significant periods of warming in the Holocene—in the Atlantic, Subboreal and Subatlantic optimum, respectively, 5500, 3500 and 1000 years ago. Knowledge of these data, when the main changes in permafrost landscapes occurred with the degradation of permafrost, can serve as a control characteristic of the loss of stability and become the basis for predicting the state of permafrost landscapes in the future. The choice of plain landscapes—tundra, northern and middle taiga—is due to the fact that it is in them that the most unstable Yedoma landscapes in terms of climate warming and anthropogenic disturbances are developed
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