RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF DEMOGRAPHIC RESPONSES TO ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE: A LESSER SNOW GOOSE EXAMPLE

Abstract

In general, analysis of population dynamics can proceed either prospectively or retrospectively. In the case of the former, asymptotic expectations are generally derived (analytically or numerically) from analysis of the potential effects of perturbation of the elements of the life table. However, the vital rates that are indicated by prospective analysis to contribute the most to projected growth rate are not necessarily those that have contributed to observed variation in growth rate over time. We used a retrospective analysis to analyze the life table responses of a population of long-lived herbivorous geese to a systematic reduction in food abundance within the traditional breeding colony. Typical of long-lived species, adult survival rate has been shown previously in a prospective perturbation analysis to have the largest potential impact on projected growth of the population. However, despite a significant long-term increase in adult survival over the course of the study, there has been a long-term decline in growth rates of the population inhabiting the traditional sampling areas, although absolute numbers of individuals in both populations increased over time. Retrospective assessment of the relative contributions of variation in underlying vital rates (adult and juvenile survival, in situ recruitment, emigration and immigration rates into the population) to projected growth showed that the long-term dynamics of the nesting population primarily reflected the combined effects of changes in postfledging juvenile survival, while changes in the postnesting population were most influenced by variation in juvenile survival and adult fidelity rate to the traditional brood-rearing areas. Decreases in both juvenile survival and fidelity reflect systematic reductions in food abundance over the course of the study. Our results confirm previous suggestions that philopatry to the brood-rearing areas may be a significantly more plastic trait than fidelity to nesting areas.