Abstract
There were 27 novel coronavirus pneumonia cases found in Wuhan, China in December 2019, named as 2019-nCoV temporarily and COVID-19 formally by the World Health Organization (WHO) on the 11 February 2020. In December 2019 and January 2020, COVID-19 has spread on a large scale among the population, which brought terrible disaster to the life and property of the Chinese people. In this paper, we analyze the features and pattern of the virus transmission. Considering the influence of indirect transmission, a conscious-based Susceptible-Exposed-Infective-Recovered (SEIR) (C-SEIR) model is proposed, and the difference equation is used to establish the model. We simulated the C-SEIR model and key important parameters. The results show that (1) increasing people’s awareness of the virus can effectively reduce the spread of the virus; (2) as the capability and possibility of indirect infection increases, the proportion of people being infected will also increase; (3) the increased cure rate can effectively reduce the number of infected people. Then, the virus transmission can be modelled and used for the inflexion and extinction period of pandemic development so as to provide theoretical support for the Chinese government in the decision-making of pandemic prevention and recovery of economic production. Further, this study has demonstrated the effectiveness of the prevention measures taken by the Chinese government such as multi-level administrative district isolation and public health awareness.
Highlights
The outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) in Wuhan at the end of 2019 has been spreading rapidly, which was designated as “public health emergencies of international concern” by World Health Organization (WHO)
In order to control the pandemic, Wuhan (Capital of Hubei Province) first announced closing of the city on the 24 January 2020 (Eve of Chinese New Year), other Provinces and cities have started the first-class response to this major public health emergency in succession to control population flow [3]
Matlab is used as the tool for numerical simulation. Under this consciousness-based SEIR model, the virus prediction result of the Wuhan areas is shown in Figure 8 with k = 0.6, k1 = 0.45, r = 1685, βUI = 0.04, βUE = 0.066, γ1 = 0.006, α1 = 0.3, α2 = 0.65, η = 0.05, ρ1 = 0.006, ρ2 = 0.05
Summary
The outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) in Wuhan at the end of 2019 has been spreading rapidly, which was designated as “public health emergencies of international concern” by World Health Organization (WHO). Besides Wuhan city, Huanggang city and Xiangyang city are the most severe areas in Hubei Province There was a sudden rise for the new confirmed cases in Hubei area on 12 February 2020, which was caused by the confirmation of the previous suspected population since the virus symptoms cannot be diagnosed at the first place [12,13] It demonstrated that the density of the infected people in Hubei Province is still quite large, and the current medical facilities cannot meet the demand at the moment, so continuous medical facilities and staff were arranged in Wuhan, not to mention another 11 makeshift hospitals built to admit more patients. Tthhreouing-h the volvemdefdaciatoprus balriecietyx,ppleaoinpelde haasv—e(a1)ctehrteasino-ucnaldledrstcaonndsicnioguosfntehses,htahramt iosf, theroduigsehatshee, smo ep-eople dia pwubillictiatkye, pdeifofperlenhtakviendascoefrtparinevuendtievrestmanedasinugreosfotnhethheairrmowonf tinhietidatisiveea,sesu, scoh paseorepdleucing will tuaknenedcieffsesraernytgkoiinndgsoouft,pwreevaernintgivme masekassaunrdeswoanshthinegirhoawndnsinfrietiqautievnet,lys;u(c2h) iansdrieredcutcininfgection, unnecthesastairsy, tghoeisnugsoceupt,tiwbleeagrirnogupmiassnkostainndfewctaesdhbinygthheanladtsenfrteoqruiennfetlcyt;ed(2p) einrsdoirne,cbtuint fbeyc-other tion, mtheaat niss,, tih.e.,suthsceepabtiabnledognroeudpmisendoictailnsfeucptepdliebsy, the llaatteennttoorrinthfeectoebdjepcetsrscoanr,rbieudt bdyisease other(macecaidnesn, it.eo.c,ctuhreraedbaantdBoenijeindgm, ee.dgi.c, aplascukpapgelieosf,ftrhoezleantefnotodor) t[h14e]o. bjects carried disease (accident occurred at Beijing, e.g., package of frozen food) [14]
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