Abstract
The objective of this study is to seek better policy options for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction in Korea’s international aviation industry by analyzing economic efficiency and environmental effectiveness with a system dynamics (SD) model. Accordingly, we measured airlines sales and CO2 emission reductions to evaluate economic efficiency and environmental effectiveness, respectively, for various policies. The results show that the average carbon emission reduction rates of four policies compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario between 2015 and 2030 are 4.00% (Voluntary Agreement), 7.25% (Emission Trading System or ETS-30,000), 8.33% (Carbon Tax or CT-37,500), and 8.48% (Emission Charge System or EC-30,000). The average rate of decrease in airline sales compared to BAU for the ETS policy is 0.1% at 2030. Our results show that the ETS approach is the most efficient of all the analyzed CO2 reduction policies in economic terms, while the EC approach is the best policy to reduce GHG emissions. This study provides a foundation for devising effective response measures pertaining to GHG reduction and supports decision making on carbon tax and carbon credit pricing.
Highlights
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have increased sharply with the rise in energy consumption worldwide
This paper examines which of the four CO2 emission reduction policies recommended by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is suitable to implement CO2 emission reduction activities in Korea’s aviation sector
This study assumes free distribution of emission permits, charge-based distribution seems to push airliners to replace more old aircraft to decrease the costs associated with purchasing permits, which in turn facilitates further reduction in CO2 emission
Summary
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have increased sharply with the rise in energy consumption worldwide. Change (IPCC), without additional GHG reduction efforts, the average global temperature will increase by 3–5 ◦ C by 2100 [1]. The emissions of GHGs and other air pollutants generated by transportation (vehicles, trains, aircraft, and ships) have significantly impacted the atmosphere and contribute to climate change [2,3]. The impact of aviation on GHG emissions has grown rapidly in recent years owing to the significant increase in the annual average number of passengers using air transport [4]. Emissions from aviation, such as carbon dioxide (CO2 ), nitrogen oxides (NOX ), and particulate matter, contribute to climate change via radiative forcing [5,6]. According to the IPCC’s Annual Report, the overall contribution of the aviation sector to carbon emission reduction is expected to reach 15% by 2050 [7]
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