RETRACTED ARTICLE: Social and economic analysis on the price spillover effect of agricultural products from the perspective of financialization: evidence from China’s oil and oilseeds industrial chain

Abstract

The future price of agricultural products in the oil and oilseeds industry has direct impact on the spot price, therefore, it is important to understand the price transmission mechanism in the industrial chains to stabilize the production and to enhance the food security of a nation. This study aims to examine the spillover effects of the oil and oilseeds industry and the inter-industry agricultural products prices from the perspective of financialization and takes soybean and rapeseed industry chain of the oil and oilseeds industry as the research objects, using the six-element VAR–GARCH–BEKK model. The key findings are as follows: (1) there are difference mean spillover effects between the futures prices of products in each link of two industry chains, and there is a vertical spillover effect between product prices in each link of the soybean industry chain; and, (2) there is a significant two-way volatility spillover effect between the futures prices of products in each link of two industrial chains. In the future, to stabilize the price fluctuations of soybean and its alternative industrial chain, comprehensive measures may be considered, such as strengthening the international trade and cooperation of the oil and oilseeds industry, developing the derivative products of the oil and oilseeds alternative industry, and improving the intensive production of the oil and oilseeds industry.