RETRACTED ARTICLE: Simulate oil spill weathering with system dynamic model

Abstract

Numerous oil spill fate and trajectory models have been recently developed to predict oil spill weathering processes. However, these models separately predicted the fate of spilled oil and the change in oil properties. A system dynamic model is thus developed based on the most significant oil weathering processes, which include spreading, evaporation, dispersion into the water bulk, emulsification, and changes in viscosity and density. We employ differential equations to describe these main oil weathering processes, which vary and have different effects on each other. Oil density and viscosity are functions of evaporation and emulsification and change over time. Oil evaporation is the most important process and removes most of the spilled oil from sea surface. Considering the main oil weathering processes, our model provides a different method of predicting the fate of oil and changes in oil properties. The Alaska North Slope is selected as a case study, and the estimated fractions of evaporation are 19% and 16% at 273 K and 283 K, respectively, within 240 h. Simulation results of oil properties and fates are also presented in this study.