Rethinking the FIFA World Cup™ final draw

Abstract

AbstractWe critically examine a number of flaws in the current procedure for the final draw of the FIFA World Cup™: imbalance (the eight groups are not of the same competitive level), unfairness (some teams have a greater chance than others of ending up in a tough group), and uneven distribution (all the possible outcomes of the draw are not equally likely). These flaws result from the way FIFA has decided to enforce the geographic constraints that they put on the draw. We explain how, by building eight pots by level organized in an S-curve, and drawing first a continental distribution of the groups and then the teams, we can enforce the geographic constraints without sacrificing balance, fairness, and even distribution. As a result, we describe a new tractable draw procedure that produces eight balanced and geographically diverse groups, is fair to all teams, and gives equally likely outcomes.