Abstract
By 2030, New Zealand agribusiness will have accepted that there are biological limits to meeting burgeoning demands for safe, affordable food production, while mitigating adverse environmental impacts. The nature of scientific research will have changed significantly from agronomic field trial observation to one of understanding aimed at fundamentally rethinking and improving resource use efficiency. Top scientists, focusing innovatively on the processes involved, will have moved from historic to future criteria for optimisation. They will also have used process-based models to highlight the few sustainable ways to alter plant, animal and soil function safely. A priori proof of concept will be a matter of course and there will have been major progress in identifying genes controlling the fine detail of the balance of growth and resource use. This future depends on applying the same criteria for evaluating proficiency, productivity and minimising unproductive costs and waste, throughout the science system itself.
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