Re-thinking coastal adaptation strategy: from SLR to land risks—Can the water policy fill the coastal strategy vacuum? The case of Morocco

Abstract

Since the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the scientific community has agreed that sea-level rise (SLR) is the most important threat to coastal zones. Due to ocean thermal expansion and the loss of land-based ice because of increased melting, the sea level has risen at a rate of about 1.7 mm/year (Bindoff et al. 2007). The projected rise from 1990 to 2100 is 9–88 cm with a mid estimate from 48 cm (Nicholls and Lowe 2004, p. 229). Even though there are always uncertainties about this phenomenon, SLR could completely annihilate some coastal zones, especially in the small islands and the low coasts (McLean et al. 2001). In Morocco, in the eastern part of the Mediterranean coast, “scenarios for future sea-level rise range from 200 to 860 mm, with a “best estimate” of 490 mm” (Snoussi et al. 2008, p. 206). The impact of the SLR will induce the loss of 24–59 % of this coastal zone and will have severe impacts on residential and recreational activities, agriculture and natural ecosystems. Those aspects are not well documented in Morocco and economic analysis is still needed in order to evaluate how SLR is affecting coastal ecosystem services (see the following). The issue is that a great number of persons are living in coastal zones which are also vulnerable ecosystems (wetlands, coral reef). This phenomenon is not specific to Morocco: “Humanity is preferentially concentrated in the coastal zones of the world. At least 200 million people were estimated to live in the coastal flood plain (below the 1 in 1000 yr storm surge) in 1990. This is likely to increase to at least 600 million people by 2100 (6 % of global population) as coastal populations are presently growing at twice the rate of global population increase (WCC’93 1994)” (Nicholls and Mimura 1998). Consequently, the SLR is the most analysed climate change impact on coastal zone by the scientific community. However, even the IPCC recognizes that SLR is not the major problem facing the coastal zone. For IPCC, this zone is, indeed, submitted to several kinds of risks (Fig. 1). In its last report, the IPCC announced: “the issue of sea-level rise still dominates the literature on coastal areas and climate change” (IPCC, Nicholls et al. 2007, Climatic Change (2013) 120:713–725 DOI 10.1007/s10584-013-0860-y