Rethinking assessment of drought impacts: a systemic approach towards sustainability

Abstract

Although impacting primarily economic sectors, droughts may also initiate dynamic mechanisms that have socio-environmental consequences on sustainability of the impacted areas. To date, most research has dealt with the economic impacts of droughts, with minimal attention being paid to the dynamics of damaging mechanisms associated with socio-environmental impacts. Using a systemic approach, this paper develops a method of identifying the dynamic structures responsible for the consequences of drought. Considering the impacts of recent droughts in Iran, the paper presents a conceptual model, underpinned by a Limits to Growth archetype to explain how different drought impacts are triggered. Moreover, adopting the Viability Loops concept, a range of strategies and indices are suggested as monitoring tools to sustain socio-economic life in a drought-impacted area. The provinces of Hamadan (with water abundance), and Yazd and Isfahan (with water scarcity) in Iran have been selected to illustrate the proposed methodology. Results show a higher vulnerability to droughts in the water-rich region due to dependence on water abundance as opposed to the water-poor regions, which are well adapted to water scarcity conditions.