RETARDATION IN BRITAIN'S INDUSTRIAL GROWTH, 1870‐1913

Abstract

It is now generally accepted that there was a slowing down in the rate of economic growth in the United Kingdom after 1870. There is not the same measure of agreement, however, as to its extent or its causes. The problem has received much attention in recent years but if one tries to synthesise the results one is struck not so much by the mass of material as by the confusing and inconsistent picture which emerges from a study of it. There are two main difficulties: the definition of the problem and the interpretations to be put upon it. In regard to the first, there are several questions which need to be answered. Is the British experience to be studied as one support for the general hypothesis of retardation in mature economies or merely as an instance of a temporarily lower trend rate of growth resulting from a special set of historical circumstances? What do we understand by the rate of economic growth? If we refer to the rate of growth of industrial production the results are very different from examination of the rate of growth of gross national product or of real income per head. To give one instance, in so far as retardation is verifiable it seems to date from 1870 in regard to industrial production but from the 1890s in the case of G.N.P. Is the retardation indisputable? The available statistics are not beyond reproach, and are little more than rough, incomplete estimates. Moreover, the slowing down indicated by some time series is relatively slight.