Retail on the Ground and on the Books: Vacancies and the (Mis)Match Between Retail Activity and Regulated Land Uses

Abstract

Problem, research strategy, and findings Though demand for living near urban amenities has grown over the past two decades, retail vacancies continue to plague many urban areas. Are cities overzoning for retail? Can this overzoning explain the proliferation of urban retail vacancies in the past two decades? We first leveraged longitudinal data on retail leases to depict patterns of retail market activity in a sample of seven moderate to large U.S. cities. Second, we used property-level data on land use regulation to investigate whether institutional context, specifically zoning, has played a role in patterns of urban retail vacancy in the past two decades. We drilled down in New York City (NY) and Los Angeles (CA) to compare trends in retail leases with changes in regulated retail land use between 2006 and 2022. We show that in this period retail rents remained flat or declined and that the average retail space did not grow and may have shrunk. Our New York and Los Angeles microdata document that, during roughly this same period, the amount of land zoned for retail increased and that the building square footage zoned for retail grew even more rapidly. Indeed, during the same decades when retail leasing slowed and rents declined, the total amount of land and square footage regulated for retail use increased. Thus, our research indicates that, in addition to market forces, land use decisions have driven the current oversupply of retail space. This also suggests an important role for planning in solving the problem of vacancies. Takeaway for practice If macroeconomic factors drive the obsolescence of certain commercial uses, local zoning and comprehensive planning should respond accordingly. As cities emerge from the pandemic and adjust to new work–live patterns, planning for the volume and spatial distribution of retail will remain an important task for urban planners and managers.