Resurgent South Asia

Abstract

This article analyses the performance of the South Asian economies in the context of the evolution of the world economy. Recent years have seen considerable liberalisation of trade and capital flows in practically all countries, particularly developing countries. Trade has, consequently, expanded and developing countries are relying more on private flows than on aid to finance their balance of payments deficits. The performance of most developing countries has suffered since the oil price rises in 1974–77. Asian countries are an exception to this as they have grown rapidly. Growth rates in South Asian countries, after lagging behind those in East Asia, now seem to be catching up. Savings and investment rates have been increasing, as also exports. India, among the South Asian countries, is most likely to maintain a rapid growth rate. Manufactured goods feature more prominently in its economic structure and exports, and manufactures tend to show more dynamism. Also, the rapid growth of exports of commercial services, which have been growing particularly rapidly in the world economy, augurs well for the future.