Resurgence of Geopolitical Rivalry in the MENA after the ‘Arab Spring’

Abstract

With the surge of developments in the Middle East and North Africa, the political and geopolitical equations of this region have undergone major transformations and a new geometry of power is emerging. In this regard, alongside the role of great powers and state actors, the growth and influence of nongovernmental and paramilitary groups is remarkable and has found an important place in the regional equations. Consequently, the set of factors including the interventionist approach of some great powers, different and contradictory Islamic ideologies and the growth of extremism and paramilitary forces in the region has intensified the strategic rivalry between regional powers, with the formation of three major axes; the Iran-led Shiite axis, the Saudi-led Salafist axis and the Turkish-led Brotherhood axis. In this regard, the purpose of the present article is to determine how the so-called Arab Spring developments have changed the power equations in the Middle East and North Africa and led to the formation of new axes? The findings of the paper suggest that myriad factors including internal vulnerabilities, social structure and also elite consensus and cohesion have resulted in the different approaches adopted by each of regional blocs. Furthermore, as a result of Arab Spring developments, the influence of some regional powers, like Iran, has been on the rise, while some others including Egypt have become marginalised and the efforts of some regional powers to further their influence have been unfruitful. The research method is descriptive-analytic; documentary and reliable internet-based sources have been used to support the argument.