RESULTS OF MODELLING OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH USING MODSNOW MODEL IN ESIL RIVER MANAGEMENT BASIN

Abstract

The article presents the results of modeling of snow water equivalent using the V03 module of the MODSNOW model, based on the empirical modeling method, for the territory of the Esil water management basin for 1980…2021 periods. The multi-year period was divided into two equal parts: 1980...1999 for model calibration, 2000...2021 for model validation. For this purpose, 20 meteorological stations located in the section of the water management basin, which have continuous input daily data of average daily air temperature, precipitation, snow cover height and ten-day data of snow water equivalent, were selected. The results of model calibration and validation for reproducibility were evaluated by Nash-Sutcliffe, RSR, and PBIAS criteria. Good reproducibility of modeled snow water equivalent at the meteorological stations Blagoveshenka, Balkashino, Sergeevka, Stepnogorsk, Yavlenka, Bulayevo was revealed; for these stations the results corresponded to the «good» reproducibility rating. It is concluded that the model for these stations can be used for short, medium- and long-term forecasting of snow water equivalent.