Results of adaptation and verification of the coupled numerical models set for predicting the variation of oceanographic features in the North-Western part of the Black Sea

Abstract

In 2014 Ukraine lost the Ukrainian National Automated System of Marine Forecasting for the Black Sea that was created and operated at the premises of Marine Hydrophysical Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine located in the Crimea. Within the framework of research works aimed at establishing a new marine forecasting system a possibility of employing the internationally acclaimed set of coupled numerical models Delft3D-FLOW + SWAN (the Simulating WAves Nearshore) for operational forecasting of the short-term (5 to 10 days) spatio-temporal variability of oceanographic features in the Ukrainian part of the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea Basin is considered. To ensure operation of the models set in the forecasting mode it was suggested to use a prediction of variability of meteorological characteristics at the air-sea interface obtained with the help of the numerical weather forecast model GFS (Global Forecast System). This paper presents the results of verification of Delft3D-FLOW and SWAN numerical models which were adapted to the conditions of the North-Western part of the Black Sea and its Odesa area in the version of meteorological data (fields of wind speed and direction, atmospheric pressure) assimilation from the GFS forecast archive. A technique of telescoping the spatial curvilinear computational grids with different resolution capacity was used in the process of models set adaptation to the conditions of the prognostic area. The models were verified by comparing modelling results with observational data on sea level variability in the ports of Odesa area of the North-Western part of the Black Sea (Chornomorsk, Odesa, Yuzhnyi), as well as with data on wind speed and direction, drift currents and characteristics of wind-induced waves recorded over the studied periods by the gauges of stationary hydrometeorological buoy which was mounted in the Bay of Odessa. Based on the analysis of the results of verification of coupled numerical models Delft3D-FLOW + SWAN set it was concluded that the set of coupled models has good prospects of being used in the system of operational forecasting of the variability of oceanographic parameters of the sea environment in the Ukrainian part of the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea Basin in the version of assimilation of meteorological information obtained from the GFS global forecast model.