Abstract
There is an increasing global burden from chikungunya virus (CHIKV). Bangladesh reported a major epidemic in 2017, but it was unclear whether there had been prior widespread transmission. We conducted a nationally representative seroprevalence survey in 70 randomly selected communities immediately before the epidemic. We found that 69 of 2938 sampled individuals (2.4%) were seropositive to CHIKV. Seropositivity to dengue virus (adjusted odds ratio, 3.13 [95% confidence interval, 1.86-5.27]), male sex (0.59 [.36-.99]), and community presence of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes (1.80 [1.05-3.0]7) were significantly associated with CHIKV seropositivity. Using a spatial prediction model, we estimated that across the country, 4.99 (95% confidence interval, 4.89-5.08) million people had been previously infected. These findings highlight high population susceptibility before the major outbreak and that previous outbreaks must have been spatially isolated.
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