Restructuring East Asian exchange rate regimes

Abstract

This paper investigated the degree of misalignment of the East Asian currencies against the U.S. dollar and against the Japanese yen under a de facto dollar-pegged exchange rate regime (January 1995 to May 1997). We found that overvaluation against the yen started in the Malaysian ringgit and the Philippine peso from January 1996 and the Thai baht from June 1996. Although the Indonesian rupiah and the Korean won against the yen were still undervalued in May 1997, degree of misalignment of both currencies narrowed from April 1995. Large withdrawal of Japanese claims after the financial crisis reduced Japanese bank lendings from $123.8 billion to $85.9 billion in end-June 1998. In 1998, Japanese Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to East Asia fell as much as 44% from the previous year. In conclusion the paper stresses the importance of the stability in yen/dollar exchange rate to avoid large volatility in Japanese capital flow.