Responsiveness of residential construction-production progress to house price dynamics

Abstract

PurposeThis study aims to address the gap by empirically exploring how residential construction-production progress, which includes project commencement, under-construction and project completion, responds dynamically to fluctuations in house prices.Design/methodology/approachA vector autoregressive model and an impulse response function are applied to simulate and analyse the circle of the stage-responsiveness of residential construction to residential property price dynamics in the state of Victoria, Australia. The quarterly numbers of dwelling units commenced, under-construction and completed are used as the proxy for the residential construction activities at three stages over the construction progress.FindingsThe analysis indicates that the dynamics are essentially transmitted throughout the construction process and can substantially impact the pace of production progress. The findings from this study provide an empirical base that should be useful in developing price-elasticity and production theories applicable to the context of residential property construction.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings described above have been generated basically by examining the case of Victoria, Australia at a macro level. The generalisation of the research output needs to be verified further by future researchers using data collected from other regions/countries. Nevertheless, the reliability of the conclusions with particular practical implications can be substantially improved by future researchers by analysing more markets and production proxies at the activity level.Practical implicationsBased on new empirical findings, this research argues that building activity (i.e. under construction) played as a gateway between the construction and housing sectors, via which the inter-responsiveness of the housing supply in terms of construction activities and housing prices are transmitted.Originality/valueThis research firstly attempts to explore the inter-responsiveness between the real estate and construction sectors. A simulated circle of the stage-responsiveness of residential construction to residential property price dynamics is proposed, which can serve as a significant foundation for developing the theory of construction production.