Responses to Lake Michigan water level rise: Trends in exposed sand cover at North Avenue Beach, Chicago

Abstract

From 2013 to 2020, water levels in Lake Michigan rose from an all-time low to the highest levels observed in nearly four decades, causing shoreline changes throughout the Great Lakes. These changes are particularly noticeable at North Avenue Beach in Chicago, an artificial beach where federal, state, and city agencies have mitigated rising waters by importing sand and constructing groins. Using spring season aerial imagery from 2012 to 2020, we calculated beach area for each year and compared sand cover loss between years to water level change per the USGS station located just south of the study area. Analysis reveals year-to-year loss in sand cover since 2013, with the largest single-year change occurring between 2018 and 2019. An inverse relationship with a slight lag exists between water level and these beach area changes. We calculated sand-groin distances from 2000 to 2020 to identify north–south effects. Of the six beach cells separated by groins, the northernmost two cells failed over the study period, and experienced the largest individual sand-groin distance losses. We modeled inundation to investigate whether the sand loss was explainable by lake level change alone, with particular attention given to hardened shoreline implemented north of the beach in 2015. Observed sand cover loss markedly exceeded predictions from the inundation modeling. In addition to water level changes, a local response to shoreline modification and obstruction of sediment transport at this site may influence sand cover.