Responses of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High to Global Warming under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Scenarios Projected by 33 CMIP5 Models: The Dominance of Tropical Indian Ocean–Tropical Western Pacific SST Gradient

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Abstract Using the outputs of 33 coupled models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), the changes of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) in the 2050–99 period under representative concentration pathway 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios relative to the 1950–99 period are analyzed. Under both scenarios, the projected changes in the WNPSH intensity are approximately zero in the multimodel ensemble mean (MME), and large intermodel spread is seen. About half of the models project an enhanced WNPSH and about half of the models project a weakened WNPSH under both scenarios. As revealed by both diagnostic studies and numerical simulations, the projected change in the WNPSH intensity is dominated by the change in the zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and the tropical western Pacific (TWP). A stronger (weaker) warming in the TIO is in favor of an enhanced (weakened) WNPSH, and a weaker (stronger) warming over the TWP is also in favor of an enhanced (weakened) WNPSH. The projected change of the WNPSH modulates the climate change over eastern China. Under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, all of the models with a significantly increased (decreased) WNPSH intensity are associated with a significant increase in the precipitation over the northern (southern) part of eastern China and an enhanced (weakened) southerly wind.