Responses of the Distribution Pattern of the Suitable Habitat of Juniperus tibetica Komarov to Climate Change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Abstract

Predicting the suitable habitat of plants under climate change has become a trending research topic in recent years. Juniperus tibetica Komarov (Cupressales: Cupressaceae) is a unique and vulnerable species on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) and the highest timberline in the Northern Hemisphere. The prediction of the suitable habitat of J. tibetica will be beneficial for understanding the ecosystem of the QTP. In the present study, variations in the distribution pattern of the suitable habitats (DPSH) of J. tibetica on the QTP were investigated by MaxEnt and GIS spatial analysis based on 288 distribution records and 8 environmental factors. The environmentally abnormal areas and environmental factors determining the DPSH along with climate change were analyzed, and the most suitable climate models were evaluated. The results show that the suitable habitat of J. tibetica will migrate to higher-elevation and -latitude areas in the future. Precipitation was the most important factor affecting current suitable habitats and limiting future ones, followed by temperature. By comparing the integrality of suitable habitat under different climate models, it was suggested that the HadGEM2-ES (RCP2.6) and BCC-CSM1.1 (RCP8.5) climate models were the best for predicting the DPSH of J. tibetica. This study revealed the response of the suitable habitat of J. tibetica relative to climate change at a large scale and provides a theoretical basis for the scientific management and conservation of J. tibetica resources on the QTP.