Responses of Hydrological Processes under Different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios in the Huaihe River Basin, China

Yuan Yao,Hui Cheng,Wei Qu,Yanan Tan,Jingxuan Lu,Zhiguo Pang,Tianjie Lei

doi:10.3390/w13081053

Abstract

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) provides more scenarios and reliable climate change results for improving the accuracy of future hydrological parameter change analysis. This study uses five CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) to drive the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, and then simulates the hydrological response of the upper and middle Huaihe River Basin (UMHRB) under future shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSPs). The results show that the five-GCM ensemble improves the simulation accuracy compared to a single model. The climate over the UMHRB likely becomes warmer. The general trend of future precipitation is projected to increase, and the increased rates are higher in spring and winter than in summer and autumn. Changes in annual evapotranspiration are basically consistent with precipitation, but seasonal evapotranspiration shows different changes (0–18%). The average annual runoff will increase in a wavelike manner, and the change patterns of runoff follow that of seasonal precipitation. Changes in soil moisture are not obvious, and the annual soil moisture increases slightly. In the intrayear process, soil moisture decreases slightly in autumn. The research results will enhance a more realistic understanding of the future hydrological response of the UMHRB and assist decision-makers in developing watershed flood risk-management measures and water and soil conservation plans.

Highlights

Global climate and environment have undergone significant changes due to greenhouse gas emissions since the end of the 20th century
The results demonstrate that the simulated series provide a good match to the observed series
The performance indices obtained from the model simulation show that the model performs well in simulating the hydrological process of the upper and middle Huaihe River Basin (UMHRB) and is used for further analysis

Summary

Introduction

Global climate and environment have undergone significant changes due to greenhouse gas emissions since the end of the 20th century. The major cause of these changes is global warming. Report indicates that the global average surface temperature data show a warming of approximately 0.85 ◦ C from 1880 to 2012 and that the global average surface temperature will continue to increase by 0.3–0.7◦ from 2016 to 2035 [1]. The original regional and natural water cycle processes of watersheds have been disrupted by climate change, resulting in a fundamental change in the precipitation–runoff response [2,3,4,5]. The frequency and intensity of extreme floods and droughts disasters will increase in the future [6]. Predicting climate change and the impact of climate change on hydrologic cycles and water resource systems have become important issues of worldwide concern

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