Responses of global monsoon and seasonal cycle of precipitation to precession and obliquity forcing

Abstract

In this paper, the response of global monsoon to changes in orbital forcing is investigated using a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model with an emphasis on relative roles of precession and obliquity changes. When precession decreases, there are inter-hemispheric asymmetric responses in monsoonal precipitation, featuring a significant increase over most parts of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) monsoon regions and a decrease over the Southern Hemisphere (SH) monsoon regions. In contrast, when obliquity increases, global monsoon is enhanced except for the American monsoon. Dynamic effects (caused by changes in winds with humidity unchanged) dominate the monsoonal precipitation response to both precession and obliquity forcing, while thermodynamic effects (caused by changes in humidity with winds unchanged) is related to the northward extension of the North African summer monsoon. During minimum precession, the seasonal cycle of tropical precipitation is advanced with respect to the maximum precession. The rainfall increase in the transitional season (April-June in the NH and October-December in the SH) is dominated by the dynamic component. From an energetics perspective, the southward (northward) cross-equatorial energy transport during April-June (October-December) corresponds to a northward (southward) shift of tropical precipitation, which results in a seasonal advance in the migration of tropical precipitation. Nonetheless, there is no significant change in the seasonal cycle in response to obliquity forcing.