Abstract

Principal response curves analysis (PRC) is widely applied to experimental multivariate longitudinal data for the study of time-dependent treatment effects on the multiple outcomes or response variables (RVs). Often, not all of the RVs included in such a study are affected by the treatment and RV-selection can be used to identify those RVs and so give a better estimate of the principal response. We propose four backward selection approaches, based on permutation testing, that differ in whether coefficient size is used or not in ranking the RVs. These methods are expected to give a more robust result than the use of a straightforward cut-off value for coefficient size. Performance of all methods is demonstrated in a simulation study using realistic data. The permutation testing approach that uses information on coefficient size of RVs speeds up the algorithm without affecting its performance. This most successful permutation testing approach removes roughly 95 % of the RVs that are unaffected by the treatment irrespective of the characteristics of the data set and, in the simulations, correctly identifies up to 97 % of RVs affected by the treatment.

Highlights

  • In ecological research, the effect of a treatment is often assessed for several response variables (RVs) at several points in time

  • We show that information obtained from ranking RVs based on bk scores of the full model can help accelerate the algorithm for variable selection without performance loss

  • On the contrary, based on confidence intervals around the mean, we found that mean specificity in the Two-Step response variable selection (RVS) was different from 0.95 in 7 out of 36 simulation scenarios, whereas for Screening and Stepwise RVS, based on 12 iterations, mean specificity was different from 0.95 in respectively 3 and 0 out of 36 data scenarios

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Summary

Introduction

The effect of a treatment is often assessed for several response variables (RVs) at several points in time. This results in multivariate longitudinal data, called multivariate time series data. PRC is a special case of redundancy analysis (RDA) used to describe experimental multivariate longitudinal data. It estimates differences among treatments on a collection of RVs over time and the extent to which the response of those individual RVs resembles the overall response. PRC has been widely applied in aquatic ecology and ecotoxicology (e.g., Hartgers et al 1998; Cuppen et al 2000; Roessink et al 2006; Duarte et al 2008; Verdonschot et al 2015), terrestrial ecology and ecotoxicology (e.g., Heegaard and Vandvik 2004; Pakeman 2004; Britton and Fisher 2007; Moser et al 2007), microbiology (e.g., Andersen et al 2010; Fuentes et al 2014) and soil science (e.g., Kohler et al 2006; Cardoso et al 2008)

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