Response Surface Based Performance Analysis of an Air-Defense Missile System Against Maneuvering Targets

Abstract

The performance of an Air Defense Missile System (ADMS), namely the probability of hit (PoH) performance, is evaluated using full grid analysis approach and response surface approach. For this purpose, a detailed six degrees of freedom missile simulation model is employed. The parameters are varied with prescribed uncertainties for performing MonteCarlo runs in order to estimate the PoH of a hypothetical missile. Because such high-fidelity models are necessary for performance analysis, the analysis process is usually very time consuming and computationally expensive. Moreover, engagement scenarios directly depend on target capabilities. Such capabilities enforce the analyst to run more simulations to obtain accurate results under various error and uncertainty conditions. In this paper, a response surface method is employed using fundamental parameters that affect the PoH. Engagement downrange and altitude, and seeker lock-on-range of the missile are selected as the fundamental inputs. Sampling points related to conventional grid and response surfaces in the experimental design are analyzed by the ADMS modeling and simulation tool. The concepts, techniques and practical applications of Design of Experiments (DoE) methods are investigated for ADMS to obtain the optimum target evasive maneuvering situation. The number of simulations required to determine the performance of ADMS against a maneuvering target is analyzed for minimizing the required number of runs. The target is assumed to have full information about the pursuing missile as a worst-case scenario. In this topic, the main idea focuses on Response Surface Methodology (RSM) with second-order models to predict a mathematical model related to the engagement for the whole operational volume.