Response Study of Streamflow and Sediment Reduction in the Northeast Region of the Loess Plateau under Changing Environment

Abstract

The Sanggan River Basin in the loess hill and gully area is the primary water source for the establishment of the capital water conservation function area and the ecological environment support zone. Against the backdrop of global warming, population growth, and accelerated urbanization, water consumption in the Sanggan River Basin has persistently increased in recent years, leading to a series of issues, such as river pollution, surface streamflow reduction, groundwater over-exploitation, soil erosion, and decreased vegetation coverage. In this research, we employed the DMC approach, SWAT model, InVEST model, and CA-Markov model to quantitatively analyze the correlation between alterations in streamflow and sediment within this area and three influential factors: climate variations, LUCC, and other human interventions. Furthermore, we clarified the relative contributions of climate factor elements, land-use types, and human activities to streamflow and sediment in this region. The findings indicate a decline in the annual streamflow and sediment quantities observed within this region from 1960 to 2020, with reduction rates of 1.27 × 108 m3/10 a and 129.07 × 104 t/10 a, respectively, and an abrupt change year in 1983 and 1982. Compared to the annual streamflow, the annual sediment volume demonstrates more substantial variation. Based on the constructed model, three scenario simulation periods: P0 (1962–1981/1982), P1 (1983/1982–1999), and P2 (2000–2020) were set. Compared with P0, the respective contribution rates of climatic variation, land use, and other human intervention to streamflow (sediment volume) were 15.247% (19.601%), −0.03% (−1.349%), and 84.783% (81.748%) in P1. In P2, the contribution rates of these three factors on streamflow (sediment volume) were 9.160% (9.128%), 0.211% (3.053%), and 90.629% (84.818%), respectively. Through a quantitative analysis of climatic factors on streamflow and sediment, we found a positive correlation between precipitation and both streamflow and sediment. Additionally, there is an inverse relationship between temperature and streamflow, but streamflow will increase when temperature rises by 10%. Under three different future land-use scenarios, the variations in streamflow and sediment exhibited as ecological protection scenario < urban expansion scenario < natural development scenario. Changes in streamflow in this region are primarily caused by human intervention that alters the underlying surface. The increase in check dams and silted land could lead the runoff and sediment to decrease. Moreover, compared with the increase in industrial and agricultural water consumption, the increase in urban water consumption is the main factor for human water consumption.