Abstract

ObjectivesTo investigate if nested multiparametric decision tree models based on tumor size and CT texture parameters from pre-therapeutic imaging can accurately predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) lesion response to transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE).Materials and methodsThis retrospective study (January 2011–September 2017) included consecutive pre- and post-therapeutic dynamic CT scans of 37 patients with 92 biopsy-proven HCC lesions treated with drug-eluting bead TACE. Following manual segmentation of lesions according to modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors criteria on baseline arterial phase CT images, tumor size and quantitative texture parameters were extracted. HCCs were grouped into lesions undergoing primary TACE (VT-lesions) or repeated TACE (RT-lesions). Distinct multiparametric decision tree models to predict complete response (CR) and progressive disease (PD) for the two groups were generated. AUC and model accuracy were assessed.ResultsThirty-eight of 72 VT-lesions (52.8%) and 8 of 20 RT-lesions (40%) achieved CR. Sixteen VT-lesions (22.2%) and 8 RT-lesions (40%) showed PD on follow-up imaging despite TACE treatment. Mean of positive pixels (MPP) was significantly higher in VT-lesions compared to RT-lesions (180.5 vs 92.8, p = 0.001). The highest AUC in ROC curve analysis and accuracy was observed for the prediction of CR in VT-lesions (AUC 0.96, positive predictive value 96.9%, accuracy 88.9%). Prediction of PD in VT-lesions (AUC 0.88, accuracy 80.6%), CR in RT-lesions (AUC 0.83, accuracy 75.0%), and PD in RT-lesions (AUC 0.86, accuracy 80.0%) was slightly inferior.ConclusionsNested multiparametric decision tree models based on tumor heterogeneity and size can predict HCC lesion response to TACE treatment with high accuracy. They may be used as an additional criterion in the multidisciplinary treatment decision-making process.Key Points• HCC lesion response to TACE treatment can be predicted with high accuracy based on baseline tumor heterogeneity and size.• Complete response of HCC lesions undergoing primary TACE was correctly predicted with 88.9% accuracy and a positive predictive value of 96.9%.• Progressive disease was correctly predicted with 80.6% accuracy for lesions undergoing primary TACE and 80.0% accuracy for lesions undergoing repeated TACE.

Highlights

  • Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) which accounts for more than 90% of primary liver cancers is the sixth most common cancer regarding incidence and the fourth most common cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide [1,2,3]

  • Complete response of HCC lesions undergoing primary transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) was correctly predicted with 88.9% accuracy and a positive predictive value of 96.9%

  • Progressive disease was correctly predicted with 80.6% accuracy for lesions undergoing primary TACE and 80.0% accuracy for lesions undergoing repeated TACE

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Summary

Introduction

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) which accounts for more than 90% of primary liver cancers is the sixth most common cancer regarding incidence and the fourth most common cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide [1,2,3]. In accordance with clinical practice guidelines, patients diagnosed with intermediate or advanced stage of neoplastic disease are not amenable to curative surgical resection but are allocated to loco-regional interventional treatment or, alternatively, protein kinase inhibitor therapy such as sorafenib [3, 4]. In Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage B patients, transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) represents the standard of care in many institutions [3, 5, 6]. TACE is the most widely used bridging therapy in BCLC stage A patients awaiting liver transplantation. Noticeable differences in overall survival suggest that not all treated lesions will effectively respond to TACE, as HCC patients show a wide spectrum of potential short- and long-term outcomes following treatment [9]

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