Abstract
Located at the junction between the continental climate region and marine climate region, the Qilian Mountains have experienced significant climate change. Vegetation phenology in the Qilian Mountains is sensitive to climate change. However, the response of vegetation phenology to temperature and precipitation change is still unclear, and the same is true for their interactions. First, we extracted grassland phenological parameters such as SOS (the start of the growing season), EOS (the end of the growing season), and LOS (the length of the growing season) from revised MODIS-NDVI data in the Qilian Mountains during the period from 2000 to 2019. Second, we analyzed change trends of the phenological parameters, temperature, and precipitation. Furthermore, the effects of each meteorological element changes and their interaction on multiple phenological parameters were detected using the GeoDetector method. The result implied that (1) the SOS in most areas except the northwestern mountain region showed an advanced trend (10 d/10a); the EOS showed a delayed trend in the southeast (5 d/10a), and an advanced trend (5 d/10a) in the northwest; the LOS showed an extended trend (10 d/10a) in the southeast, and a shortened trend (5 d/10a) in the northwest. (2) Compared with a single meteorological element in a single period, the interaction of temperature and precipitation in different periods had a higher impact on grassland phenology, with the maximum q-value increasing by about 0.4 for each phenological parameter. (3) The change in the grassland phenology in the Qilian Mountains was inconsistently complete with climate change in the spatial distribution. Our research reveals the response of grassland phenology to the interaction of different meteorological elements in different periods. Compared with a single element, this can reflect the response of vegetation phenology to climate change more comprehensively.
Highlights
The MODIS normalized vegetation index (NDVI) produced by a revised algorithm was used as the data source to extract the phenological parameters of the grassland in the Qilian Mountains from 2000 to 2019
With the derived temporal trends of the meteorological elements and grass phenological parameters, GeoDetector was used to detect the degree of interpretation to changes in phenological parameters by the meteorological elements and their interactions
From 2000 to 2019, significant changes occurred in temperature, precipitation, and grassland phenology in the Qilian Mountains
Summary
The global climate has undergone significant changes. Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) pointed out that a global warming trend has been obvious in the past 100 years, and the surface temperature has increased by 0.85 ◦ C on average [1]. Zuo et al analyzed the monthly average temperature and precipitation and found that the trend of temperature increase in China has been slightly higher than the global average by more than 0.25 ◦ C/10a since 1970. The change trend of precipitation is not spatially homogeneous. The Qilian Mountains have experienced the same significant precipitation increases as Xinjiang, Northeast China, Southeastern
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