Response of the atmospheric rivers and storm tracks to the Sudden Stratospheric Warming events on the basis of North Atlantic Atmospheric Downscaling (1979+)

Abstract

In this study, we analyse fast (within 30 days) response of the atmospheric rivers and storm tracks positioning over the western European coast to the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events. Analysis is done on the basis of North Atlantic Atmospheric Downscaling (NAAD) product with 14 km and 3-hourly spatial and temporal resolutions. Atmospheric rivers and cyclones are synoptic atmospheric phenomena characterized by the strong impact onto the mid- and high latitude costal zones. This impact results in extreme precipitation and wind events, floodings, long wet episodes, etc. Among other mechanisms controlling the positioning of the storm track and atmospheric rivers, we show that SSW events cause a significant southward shift of both storm track and location of the hit of the European coast by atmospheric rivers within 30 days after the SSW event. Thus, we provide a qualitative and quantitative measure of the SSWs impact on the location of the potentially extreme weather events over the European coast with 30 days predictive time scale.