Response of subglacial sediments to basal freeze‐on 2. Application in numerical modeling of the recent stoppage of Ice Stream C, West Antarctica

Abstract

Ross ice streams supply over 90% of the ice volume flowing out of the Ross sector of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS). Stoppage of Ice Stream C (ISC) ca. 150 years ago appears to have pushed this sector of WAIS from negative into positive mass balance [Joughin and Tulaczyk, 2002]. We propose an explanation for the unsteady behavior of ISC using a new numerical ice‐stream model, which includes an explicit treatment of a subglacial till layer. When constrained by initial conditions emulating prestoppage geometry, dynamics, and mass balance of ISC, the model yields a rapid (∼100 years) stoppage of the main ice‐stream trunk. The stoppage is triggered by basal freeze‐on, which consolidates and strengthens the subglacial till. Our numerical simulations produce results consistent with a number of existing observations, for example, continuing activity of the two tributaries of ISC. The model always yields rapid stoppage unless we specify ice‐stream width that is smaller than its prestoppage values (maximum of ∼80 km). We conjecture that if ISC was active for at least a few thousand years before slowdown, its width was significantly smaller than today to sustain the long active phase. Ice‐stream width is a key control that helps determine whether ice‐stream flow is sustainable over a long term. Our work indicates that the recent stoppage of Ice Stream C could have been part of inherent ice‐stream cyclicity, and it leaves open the possibility that other active ice streams may evolve in the future toward rapid shutdowns.