Abstract
Comprehending the mechanisms underlying the response of water productivity to changing climate is essential for developing effective strategies that can maintain sustainable agricultural productivity and ecological stability amidst water scarcity and climate change. This study aimed to clarify the effects of climate and associated biologic and abiotic factors on the net water productivity (NWP) in the winter wheat—summer maize rotation system within the North China Plain (NCP), through integrating spatial-temporal pattern analysis, the Optimal Parameter-based Geographical Detector model, Random Forest, and Structural Equation Modeling. Despite climate warming and water scarcity, the NWP in the vast majority of rotation systems within the NCP exhibited an increasing trend between 2000 and 2019, which was anticipated to persist in the future. From 2000–2019, the impact of climate on the NWP exerted a fluctuating diminishment, besides the influence of WS. It is essential to add adaptive strategies that can cope with WS fluctuation in future management, to better tackle climate variability. Apart from direct effects, meteorological factors indirectly induced NWP variation primarily by influencing edaphic moisture dynamic and crop growth factors. In the paths underlying the effect of climate change on NWP, positive and negative effects coexisted. Edaphic moisture within the 40–100 cm layer played an important role in affecting NWP throughout rotation systems. To sustainably improve NWP, it was advisable to adopt deeper-rooting crop varieties in conjunction with moderate deficit irrigation and improving topsoil water retention capability. Overall, we incorporated soil and crop factors into the framework of climate impact research, providing a systematic elucidation for the mechanisms through which climate change affects NWP. Additionally, the conclusions were based on a continuous spatiotemporal framework that accounted for the geospatial heterogeneity of variables, thereby giving conclusions ample regional universality.
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