Abstract
In the changing climatic condition, temperature is the most vulnerable parameter and is projecting a trend of increase in the future. Crop growth and development process depend largely on air temperature. This study aims to determine the role of increasing air temperature in yield, crop water requirement (CWR), and other agronomic parameters of irrigated rice. Ceres-rice model associated in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) was used in 15 different locations of Bangladesh. Grain yield, growth duration, and crop water requirement of widely cultivated irrigated rice (Boro rice) variety BRRI dhan28 were analysed in normal temperature and elevated air temperature by 1°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C. The result revealed detrimental effect of elevated temperature on growth duration and grain yield. The estimated highest growth duration reduction of 30 days was found in Moulvibazar for 4°C temperature rise. The grain yield reduction was projected by 0–17%, 16–35%, 31–49%, and 39–61% from the normal condition if the seasonal mean temperature increased by 1°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C, respectively. The country average crop water requirement was found to be 405 mm of which the highest 445 mm and the lowest 358 mm were recorded in Moulvibazar and Chandpur, respectively. The study revealed that the country average rice CWR reduced by 5%, 8%, 12%, and 17% over the normal condition for 1°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C rising temperature, respectively. For 1°C temperature rise, BRRI dhan28 life span shortened by 6.4 days, grain yield reduced by 695 kg, and estimated CWR decreased by 14 mm. The projected declining CWR indicated that irrigated rice will require less irrigation water, but it will cause considerable yield loss under elevated temperature. Though elevated temperature will save huge irrigation water used in country-wide Boro rice cultivation, the crop developers need to introduce new heat-tolerant cultivar to minimize yield loss.
Highlights
Air temperature is the elementary environmental factor that regulates plant growth and development process
In terms of model evaluating parameters (Pe, normalized root mean square error (nRMSE), R2, and d), the values for Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) dhan28 were within the recommended limit compared to default cultivar
The adjusted sensitive parameters of BRRI dhan28 performed better regarding grain yield and growth duration compared to the default cultivar
Summary
Air temperature is the elementary environmental factor that regulates plant growth and development process. Both seasonal and annual potential evapotranspiration (ET0) were linearly affected by maximum and minimum air temperature [1]. Crop life span mainly depends on accumulated growing degree days (GDD) and is derived from mean daily temperature over base temperature of crop. Grain yield of crop largely depends on air temperature. Intergovernmental panel for climate change (IPCC) projected rising temperature by 1.5°C for RCP 4.5 and 2°C for RCP 8.5 by the end of the 21st century, relative to the average from the year 1850 to 1900 [2]. A historical (1990–2011) analysis showed increasing trend of daily average temperature in Northwest hydrological region of Bangladesh [3]
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