Response of avian cavity nesters and carbon dynamics to forest management and climate change in the Northern Rockies

Abstract

AbstractForest ecosystem services (e.g., carbon and nutrient cycling, biodiversity, and wood products) in many moisture‐limited systems in the western USA are being impacted by climate change. Maintaining these services, increasing resiliency, and conserving wildlife habitat will depend on climate change adaptive forest management strategies. Studying the impacts of U.S. Forest Service (USFS) land management plans on long‐term carbon cycling and wildlife habitat is imperative for evaluating and implementing adaptive management under climate change. In this study, we present the results of an integrated framework of forest landscape and avifauna niche suitability modeling, applied in the northern Rockies of Idaho (NRI). We report on the interactive effects of climate change, fire, and harvest management on carbon cycling and the distribution of suitable habitat of two avian cavity nesters: Flammulated Owl (Psiloscops flammeolus) and American Three‐toed Woodpecker (Picoides dorsalis). The net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) of the NRI was predicted to be negative (carbon source) at the end of the century, primarily because of harvest removals on privately managed lands. This was despite increases in net ecosystem productivity stimulated by harvest. In contrast, NECB of USFS land was positive throughout the century. This was a direct result of the Idaho Panhandle National Forest Land Management Plan (Plan) objectives that were implemented via harvest prescriptions. Under climate warming, compositional shifts in Pinus ponderosa and Pseudotsuga menziesii along with increases in mature/old‐growth forest stands were in agreement with the Plan's objectives. These and additional species composition shifts also maintained the realized niche of the Flammulated Owl and increased the potential niche of the American Three‐toed Woodpecker on USFS land by the end of the century. These projections highlight the potential for the NRI to remain viable wildlife habitat in a warming climate and to sequester carbon. The research demonstrates the benefits of an integration modeling framework as a tool to evaluate multi‐objective forest management directives.