Response of Arctic Black Carbon Contamination and Climate Forcing to Global Supply Chain Relocation.

Abstract

Black carbon (BC) plays a vital role in Arctic warming. Extensive investigations have been conducted to elucidate the source-receptor relationships of BC between the Arctic and mid-/high-latitude sources. However, it is unclear to what extent source relocation under globalization could disturb Arctic BC contamination and climate forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions. Here, we show that the global supply chain (GSC) relocation featured by the southward shift of industries from high-latitude developed countries to low-latitude developing countries markedly reduces the BC burden in the Arctic using a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) and a multiregional input-output analysis (MRIO). We find that Arctic annual mean BC concentration associated with the GSC relocation drops by ∼15% from the case without the GSC relocation. The total net BC level declines 7% over the entire Arctic and 16% in the European Arctic. We also observed markedly declining BC deposition as well as direct and snow albedo radiative forcing in the Arctic. We show that the Arctic BC burden would be further reduced by decreasing BC emissions in China, attributable to its emission reduction and ongoing shift of the GSC from China to southern and southeastern Asia.