Response of a Sylvan Moss Species (Didymodon validus Limpr.) with a Narrow Distribution Range to Climate Change

Abstract

Mosses are particularly susceptible to climate change owing to their close biological and ecological associations with climatic conditions. However, there is a limited understanding of the changes in distribution patterns of the moss species in forest ecosystems under climate change, especially in mosses with narrow ranges. Therefore, we reconstructed historical, simulated present, and predicted future potential distribution patterns of Didymodon validus, a narrow-range moss species in the forest ecosystem, using the MaxEnt model. The aim of this study was to explore its unique suitable habitat preference, the key environmental factors affecting its distribution, and the distributional changes of D. validus under climate change at a long spatial-time scale. Our findings indicate that the most suitable locations for D. validus are situated in high-altitude regions of southwestern China. Elevation and mean temperature in the wettest quarter were identified as key factors influencing D. validus distribution patterns. Our predictions showed that despite the dramatic climatic and spatial changes over a long period of time, the range of D. validus was not radically altered. From the Last Interglacial (LIG) to the future, the area of the highly suitable habitat of D. validus accounted for only 15.3%–16.4% of the total area, and there were weak dynamic differences in D. validus at different climate stages. Under the same climate scenarios, the area loss of suitable habitat is mainly concentrated in the northern and eastern parts of the current habitat, while it may increase in the southern and eastern margins. In future climate scenarios, the distribution core zone of suitable habitat will shift to the southwest for a short distance. Even under the conditions of future climate warming, this species may still exist both in the arid and humid regions of the QTP in China. In summary, D. validus showed cold and drought resistance. Our study provides important insights and support for understanding the impact of climate change on the distribution of D. validus, as well as its future distribution and protection strategies.