Abstract
BackgroundIncreases in global mean temperature, changes in rainfall patterns, and extreme climatic events are expected results of climate change. The individual effects of elevated temperature and precipitation on insect pests due to the impact of climate change have been widely modeled individually but their combined effects are poorly understood.ResultsTen years of monthly abundance of an important economic rice insect pest, the rice yellow stem borer (YSB), Scirpophaga incertulas Walker (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), was modeled in relation to temperature and rainfall using cross-correlation functions, general linear models, ARIMA models and simple linear regressions. The results suggested that increasing temperature and rainfall separately had a positive effect on growth rate of YSB. However, the combined effect of high temperature and rainfall was negative Temperature affected abundance of YSB negatively at high rainfall, but positively at intermediate to low rainfall level. The growth rate of YSB was found to be high at relatively low temperature and abundant rainfall.ConclusionThe combined effects of temperature and rainfall showed a quadratic response of YSB abundance, which indicated that outbreak risk of YSB may be reduced if climate change results in increasing temperature and rainfall. It should be noted that we could address only a few of the important factors which could influence our model prediction.
Highlights
Increases in global mean temperature, changes in rainfall patterns, and extreme climatic events are expected results of climate change
Comparisons between light trap captures and field samples indicated that only 6.0% of the population remains in the field, and 94% of the population is caught in the light trap, confirming that the light trap catches are an effective tool to monitor yellow stem borer (YSB) in rice fields
December to March had the lowest abundance of the yearly seasons
Summary
Increases in global mean temperature, changes in rainfall patterns, and extreme climatic events are expected results of climate change. Global temperatures are projected to increase 1.4 to 5.8 °C by 2100 in conjunction with precipitation increases of 10 to 15% and higher rates of occurrence of heat waves and cold snaps [19] These changes will have major influences on the abundance, distribution and ecology of plants and animals worldwide [2, 9, 21, 22, 30,31,32,33]. Both temperature and precipitation strongly affect insect development. The physiological impacts of climate change on rice development is expected to reduce rice yields more than 30% over the 80 years [27]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
