Resources, population, environment: an oversupply of false bad news : Simon, J. L., 1980. Science, 208(4451): 1431–1437

Abstract

The author argues that bad and false news about population levels and trends and world resources is more likely to be publicized than is good and true news and he attempts to demonstrate this by refuting several pessimistic statements about world food supply economic growth natural resource depletion and related topics. The author states that the world food supply has been increasing at roughly 1% per capita yearly and that the danger of famine is decreasing. Empirical studies are said to show that no statistical correlation exists between a countrys population growth and its per capita economic growth over the long or short run in developing or developed contexts. The findings from computer models that increased population will cause decreased per capita income is refuted by the argument that in the long run the additional people will contribute to knowledge technical progress improved standards of living and increased productivity. Declines over time in the prices of most natural resources including energy are said to indicate that they are becoming increasingly less scarce relative to human work time. The author believes that false and bad news dominates public discussions because of current research funding patterns the commercial value of bad news psychological dispositions and idealistic beliefs that exaggeration of problems will prompt remedial action.