Abstract
Various sustainability scenarios have been developed to visualize images of a sustainable society, such as the IPCC’s scenario. However, it is unclear whether or not such existing long-term scenarios are feasible in terms of resource depletion. The purpose of this paper is to propose a method for analyzing the balance of long-term copper demand and supply, aiming to assess feasibility of existing sustainability scenarios. This paper proposes two approaches, i.e., macro and micro approaches, in order to estimate copper demand in a comprehensive manner. In the macro approach, metal demand is estimated using GDP/capita and population. The micro approach estimates metal demand based on dissemination of products. As a case study, this paper estimates copper demand in a long-term energy scenario. The results show that cumulative demand of copper will be beyond their reserve base after 2038. The results also indicate that, though copper consumptions will increase because of shifts from gasoline vehicles to electric vehicles, their impact to the whole consumptions is not dominant.
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