Resource effectiveness of the European automotive sector – a statistical entropy analysis over time

Alexej Parchomenko,Dirk Nelen,Jeroen Gillabel,Karl C Vrancken,Helmut Rechberger

doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.105558

Abstract

The European automotive sector is faced with potentially disruptive challenges. In particular, the projected increase in the share of electric vehicles (EVs) and calls to prepare for the implementation of more circular economy (CE) strategies are increasingly demanding systemic adaptations. Given the goals of the CE, the adaptations should enable a maximal preservation of the function and value of products (e.g. extension of lifetime), components (e.g. reuse of parts) and materials (e.g., material recycling), thus saving on the energy, materials and effort that would be required to restore the lost functionalities. In this context, statistical entropy analysis (SEA) is proposed as a methodology to assess the effort needed for preserving and restoring functionality at different product, component and material life cycle stages. Effort is measured as changes in statistical entropy that are caused by concentration and dilution activities in the production – consumption – End-of-Life (EoL) system. SEA was applied to a generic model of the European automotive system, in combination with a stock-driven model and a material flow analysis (MFA), allowing statistical entropy changes to be projected over time. The paper demonstrates how SEA can facilitate decision making on the transition towards a more circular economy by quantifying the effects of particular CE strategies and their combinations. The results show that without any additional system adaptations, an increasing share of EVs towards the year 2050 will lead to substantially increased effort in production as well as end-of-life vehicle treatment.

Highlights

The increase or decrease in the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) and internal com bustion engine vehicles (ICEV) is shown by the slopes for each scenario graph, e.g. the inflows of ICEVs being directly related to the number of EVs entering the vehicle stock in a specific year
Statistical Entropy Analysis (SEA) has been applied in combination with a stock-driven model and a material flow analysis (MFA) in order to assess a set of possible future transition sce narios related to the European Union (EU) automotive system with regard to resource effectiveness until the year 2050
By providing an evaluative perspective that considers the effort required to preserve functionality (expressed as aggregated changes in Relative Statistical Entropy (ΔRSEcum) per year), different transition scenarios are evaluated in the circular economy context over a 40-year period

Summary

Introduction

In the European Union (EU), as in other parts of the world, the need for mobility is largely satisfied through the use of personal passenger vehicles, accounting for more than 70% of all journeys (ACEA, 2019). With a global share of 24% of all passenger vehicles produced (16.5 million units), the EU-28 represents one of the major pro duction regions (ACEA, 2019), making the automotive sector one of the most important economic sectors (European Economic and Social Committee, 2016), but a major resource consumer as well. The difference between the two flows is explained by unregistered exports of vehicles and ELVs, including the 3 to 4 million vehicles of unknown whereabouts (EC, 2018a), which in dicates the challenge of closing material loops before considering other limitations such as the fundamental limits of recycling (Ignatenko et al, 2008; Reuter et al, 2006). It is imperative that the most resource-effective measures necessary to meet CE goals of preserving the value of products, components and materials at the highest possible level over time (European Commision, 2015; European Commission, 2018b; Iacovidou et al, 2017a), be clearly identified so as to optimally preserve functionality (Mesa et al, 2020; Proske and Jae ger-Erben, 2019)

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Results

Conclusion