Resource Discovery and the Political Fortunes of National Leaders

Abstract

We investigate the causal effects ofgiantandfirstoil and mineral discoveries on the political fortunes of national leaders using a large dataset of 1255 leaders in 158 countries over the period 1950 to 2010 insingle‐riskandmultiple‐riskdiscrete time proportional hazard models. We find that mineral discoveries reduce risk for the incumbent in a single‐risk model especially in a non‐election year. In contrast, oil discoveries reduce risk disproportionately more in countries with weak political institutions. The effects appear to be induced by resource income rather than expectations. In a multiple‐risk model, oil discovery significantly reduces the risk of departure via military coup while resource discovery reduces the risk of resignation. Resource discovery does not seem to affect the risk of election loss. Non‐resource tax and military expenditure appear to be two potent mechanisms through which oil discovery affects political survival.