Resource allocation for regional earthquake risk mitigation: a case study of Tehran, Iran

Abstract

This paper presents a new optimization model to help cities in seismically active developing countries decide (1) How much to spend on pre-earthquake mitigation versus waiting until after an event and paying for reconstruction or simply not rebuilding damaged buildings? (2) Which buildings to mitigate and how? and (3) Which buildings to reconstruct and how? It extends previously developed optimization models to consider the particular issues that arise in such countries. First, the model allows for the possibility that some damaged buildings will not be reconstructed immediately and keeps track of any lost building inventory. Second, buildings can be mitigated to, or when damaged, reconstructed to, any appropriate structural type and seismic design level. Finally, the model objectives include minimizing the chance of an extremely high death toll in any one earthquake and minimizing the average annual death toll across earthquakes. The model is illustrated through a case study analysis for Tehran, Iran.