Abstract

Abstract. A key feature of the growth of industrial society is the acquisition of increasing quantities of resources from the environment and their distribution for end-use. With respect to energy, the growth of industrial society appears to have been near-exponential for the last 160 years. We provide evidence that indicates that the global distribution of resources that underpins this growth may be facilitated by the continual development and expansion of near-optimal directed networks (roads, railways, flight paths, pipelines, cables etc.). However, despite this continual striving for optimisation, the distribution efficiencies of these networks must decline over time as they expand due to path lengths becoming longer and more tortuous. Therefore, to maintain long-term exponential growth the physical limits placed on the distribution networks appear to be counteracted by innovations deployed elsewhere in the system, namely at the points of acquisition and end-use of resources. We postulate that the maintenance of the growth of industrial society, as measured by global energy use, at the observed rate of ~ 2.4 % yr−1 stems from an implicit desire to optimise patterns of energy use over human working lifetimes.

Highlights

  • The growth of industrial society since the Industrial Revolution has required the continual exploitation of a diverse range of environmentally derived resources

  • Our analysis suggests that: 1. By definition, resource distribution networks must fill the space occupied by industrial society

  • To explore the possibility that the distribution element of the global RADE system behaves in this way we investigate the relationship between global primary energy use, x, and global final energy use, x∗

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Summary

Introduction

The growth of industrial society since the Industrial Revolution has required the continual exploitation of a diverse range of environmentally derived resources. This model yields constant relative growth in energy use despite the decreasing returns to scale associated with the expansion of the RADE distribution network(s). This is done by exploring an optimisation of average personal energy use over specific integration timescales.

Energy and resource distribution networks
Primary and final energy flows at the global scale
What space does society inhabit?
What happens at the regional scale?
Long-run growth and decarbonisation of global energy use
Total energy efficiency and growth – a model
Growth optimisation and working lifetimes
Findings
Concluding remarks
Full Text
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