Resource abundance, financial crisis and economic growth: did resource‐rich countries fare better during the global financial crisis?

Abstract

This study examines the role of resource abundance in the cross‐country differences in the impacts of the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008–2009. Using forecasts from the unobserved components model and exponential smoothing technique, we estimate the output levels a country would reach in 2009 and 2013 in the absence of the GFC, and compare these with the realised output levels. We find large variations in the output losses across 72 countries. The mineral‐rich countries have been found to be in a strong position to survive any adverse shocks stemming from the GFC. Income per capita, trade openness, and institutional quality and government effectiveness are also found to be key factors determining the differences in output loss in the post‐crisis period. These findings have strong implications for resource‐rich countries such as Australia and are expected to shed new light on alternative policy designs and appropriate strategies to deal with any future economic crisis.