Abstract
In the United States, 19 state-level bills and ballot initiatives concerning farm animal welfare (FAW) have been adopted across 12 states. In this research, we seek to model the evolution of the state-level FAW regulatory landscape as a function of legislature characteristics and constituent demographics. More specifically, we utilize a two-stage model to assess (i) whether and when a given state considers FAW measures, and (ii) if so, the likelihood the measures are passed. Using our model, we estimate the likelihood of FAW adoption outcomes for all 50 states. We find that the cost to the egg and pork industries to upgrade to cage- and crate-free production methods in the states most likely to pass a FAW regulation in the future is small relative to the size of the industry. Our findings will assist producers and industry stakeholders in gauging the future of the regulatory landscape and provide guidance on whether to upgrade existing enclosures to comply with mandates on the horizon or to continue operating with “conventional” enclosures.
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